Violent Separatism in Xinjiang: a critical assessment

A report by James Millward for the East-West Center.

This study surveys the evidence for organized, violent separatist resistance to Chinese rule in Xinjiang, a region three times the size of France located in the northwestern corner of the PRC. Since several major violent events in the 1990s, concern has risen over the possibility that a violent separatist or terrorist movement may be emerging among the Turkic Muslim population of this region.

Stories in the international media have sounded this warning steadily if sporadically over the past decade, and in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, the PRC government has publicly linked groups comprised of Uyghurs from Xinjiang to al Qaeda and other international terrorist organizations. The United States and the United Nations have agreed to some extent with China?s assessment and designated one of the groups on China?s terrorist list, ETIM, as an international terrorist organization.

After summarizing the 250-year history of various kinds of resistance in Xinjiang, this study catalogs major violent incidents since the 1990s in Xinjiang and in the Central Asian republics. It then discusses the Uyghur groups and individuals listed as separatists or terrorists. On the basis of a critical analysis of international press reports and PRC government materials, the study concludes that while ethnic tensions in Xinjiang are indeed serious, the sense of imminent crisis commonly conveyed by these reports is exaggerated. In particular, the study notes that the frequency and severity of violence have in fact declined since the late 1990s, perhaps due to Chinese efforts at interdiction.

Read the full report here.